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If somebody can tell me where to look...
You likely need to taylor your iptables rules to also log when you reject these connections: http://www.cyberciti.biz/tips/force-iptables-to-log-messages-to-a-different-...
This is a *very* dangerous thing for *any* relay to do. Does iptables have support for ‘counters’?
Yes, I first thought about a simple rule counting outgoing TCP SYN packets but I didn't suggest it because I thought there are better ways via the control port and as Mike said if you have already a connection to relay foo new circuits to using relay foo wont result in new connection attempts.
you can count outgoing connection attempts to port 443 from tor like this:
iptables -I OUTPUT -m owner --uid-owner yourtorUID -p tcp --syn --dport 443
Counter can be inspected by looking at the iptables -vL output.